2026 ELECTIONS: DEMOCRACY OR REVOLUTION
<< To think that in this era “there can be no revolution” like the French, English, American, Russian, or Mexican ones is merely a display of ignorance a...>>
https://500palabras.pe/en/opinion.php?opinion_id=6
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Perhaps the title may seem provocative or somewhat seventies, but there is no greater mistake than thinking that the phenomena inherent to politics cannot be reproduced in the contemporary era. Without going too far, right now Donald Trump is steering the U.S. towards an "obsolete and outdated model" such as protectionism. Madness? Ignorance? That’s what his critics will say, but the reality is that both war and peace, as well as changes in geopolitics, borders, interests, and economic visions, are intrinsic parts of human nature. For proof, we need only turn to any book of World History to see that everything is cyclical, everything repeats itself, everything happens again within a single generation. OF COURSE A REVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE To think that in this era “there can be no revolution” like the French, English, American, Russian, or Mexican ones is merely a display of ignorance about the struggle for power throughout human history. Let’s look at a map from a century ago, and we’ll see countries that no longer exist, as well as others that appeared out of nowhere. Still, people tend to believe that “this will never happen again.” Surely, it won’t happen in the same way, but it will happen under different elements and conditions. After World War I, Europeans swore such a thing would never happen again, but just 20 years later, World War II broke out. Since then, these supposedly “overcome” wars have continued to occur more frequently and more threateningly. Today, the war in Ukraine shows clear signs of potentially becoming the Third (at least, that is what the EU seems to wish fervently). DEMOCRACY IS NOT PERFECT We must also remember that democracy is not a panacea, nor the answer to all problems. This form of government, which is millennia-old (and was used by hundreds of peoples long before the Greeks, though the information we have about it is completely biased due to Western dominance), is nothing more than a method of reaching a social consensus on the best way to organize a society (be it nomadic, tribal, urban, etc.). When such agreement doesn’t exist, it’s impossible for society to remain united, let alone survive. This happens every time a group or family (even today, families run governments and major global corporations) decides to seize power without the consent of others who also desire it. That’s when the rupture occurs and a revolution (or in other words, a civil war) follows. WE HAVE NEVER LIVED IN COMPLETE PEACE In Peru, since the first day of the Conquest, there has never been a lack of unrest, dissatisfaction, and uprisings. Throughout these five centuries, popular revolts have shaped the current state of our society. The uprisings of Manco Inca, Mateo Pumacahua, Túpac Amaru II, among others, were just the most prominent. The most recent one, Shining Path, despite its clear foreign ideological influence (Maoism), also contained in its origins the same spirit of rebellion typical of an Andean-Amazonian people who, despite the passing of time, still refuse to accept being just an instrument of the conquerors and their current descendants (the great families of European origin who today make up the economic power groups that indirectly control the country's fate). This vision is not reflected in history books or in "official culture" because it would expose the wound, the root of everything, the origin of the pseudo-colonial structure that still defines us. In recent years, due to the influx from the countryside to the city and the State's neglect (which has devoted itself entirely to enriching big corporations), the population —still lacking answers to its essential needs (which go beyond basic services, as it seeks to see itself reflected in power)— has opted to try the “democratic path” as a substitute for traditional “peasant revolts,” all of which have been suppressed with massacres carefully hidden by the press. This began in 1990 with the election of Alberto Fujimori, who for the first time in Peruvian history rose to the presidency without being a “white boss” or a “military coup leader.” THE HARDWORKING “LITTLE CHINAMAN” The shock that this democratic decision caused among the upper class was so great that many considered leaving the country (much like in Angola and Mozambique, when Black people came to power and the white descendants of Portuguese colonizers had to flee en masse to Portugal because they felt they “no longer belonged” to those nations). But suddenly, this man (whose only aspiration had been to reach Congress) made a 180-degree turn in his proposals and became the most staunch and flexible representative of the Peruvian aristocracy. He became an instrument of the World Bank and IMF to implement in Peru all the "recipes" those organizations demanded from poor countries —from total privatizations to mass sterilization of women. PERSISTENCE From then on, the Peruvian people have persisted in their desire to reach power through an electoral process, but they have always ended up with the same results: betrayal by those who claimed to "represent them." Clear examples of this were Toledo (a puppet of Raúl Diez Canseco and PPK) as well as Humala (a puppet of CONFIEP and the U.S.). The failure with Castillo (an incapable person dismantled by the aristocracy and their Fujimorist allies) reveals a single truth: this "democratic" formula to gain some advantage or benefit for the Peruvian population simply doesn’t work. In short, the ruling class will not allow any change, even if it is the will of a vast majority. Democracy —government of the people— will never be allowed in countries like Peru. UNCERTAINTY So, what’s going to happen now that we all know perfectly well that the current government is designing a structure to maintain control no matter who wins the next “democratic” election? We already know that the Senate will have full power to dismiss the president with just a few votes, while the president will have no such power over the Senate (meaning whoever controls that chamber will actually govern Peru). What will happen if that future president wins the majority vote of the people, but lacks the endorsement or approval of CONFIEP or Miraflores? Most likely, by 2026, we will end up with “more of the same” —a Boluarte-style government without Boluarte. All under the military and police threat, whom they have turned into their bodyguards (as they always have been, with rare exceptions like Velasco). CONSEQUENCES If this scenario materializes (as everything suggests unless a powerful earthquake or a world war intervenes), we will see a Peruvian people disappointed, disenchanted, and distrustful of “democracy” as a real means of expressing their hopes and expectations. The government will be taken over by mafiosos and criminals disguised as “politicians and businessmen,” but we will all know they are merely individuals who have seized power based on drug trafficking money, corruption, illegal mining, or dominant family fortunes. None of them will truly be a “representative of the people”; all of them will be the result of fraud, deception, and manipulation powered by millions of dollars and the top echelon that controls the Judiciary, the Prosecutor's Office, and the Electoral Board (JNE). CAN A REVOLUTION HAPPEN? So, the big question for those of us who think about these phenomena is: what’s going to happen? How will people in the provinces, in the rural towns, in Lima’s outskirts react? Will they resign themselves once again, waiting for “the next elections” only to be betrayed again? Or will they erupt due to their inability to have a country that serves all, not just a few exporters of raw materials and agribusiness? If we follow the path of what Peru has been over the last centuries, we should not be surprised if a tendency toward subversion begins to emerge —first modest and quiet, but later overflowing, to the point where the military, no matter how many men, women, and children they kill, will feel ashamed of that role and ultimately refuse to kill their own brothers, wives, and children (as has happened many times). CONCLUSION The current power groups (Congress, Executive, Armed Forces, and CONFIEP) will need to think very carefully about what they’re doing because they may be risking everything. They all trust that “the soldiers will take care of eliminating subversion with bullets,” but they forget that more than once those same soldiers have turned their backs on their “masters” and chosen to side with the people who were simply seeking justice and a government that was more efficient and aligned with reality —one where criminals disguised as “politicians” or “businessmen” would not be entrenched in power. In short, in these elections, those who currently control the country will be “playing with fire,” as they are ignoring history and the true nature of the Peruvian people —a people who, when they see no way out, end up rebelling. I hope these words serve as a reflection, so they won’t say later that no one warned them.
